PILLAR: SMART NETWORKS
Long-Term Forecasting Platform (Strategic Forecasting System)
What we will do and why
Development of enhanced medium to long term forecasting capabilities to produce granular and accurate models of future demand and generation, which will be shared in an open and transparent manner with stakeholders.
Key deliverables
- Enhancement of existing Strategic Forecasting System capabilities.
- Business As usual capability.
- Establishing framework for Support and maintenance.
Target outcomes
- Broader, more effective stakeholder engagement.
- Enhanced visualisation of load growth forecasting.
- Increased stakeholder access to load related forecast data.
Measures of success
- Increase in predictive data accuracy & granularity.
- Extent of publication of load forecast data and information.
- Customer and stakeholder satisfaction.
Stakeholder Engagement
We gather information from local authorities to inform the scenarios in our long term forecasts, for instance this year we have developed functionality in our forecasting systems to ingest Local Authority’s Local Area Energy Plans. We then share updated outputs regularly on the Open Data Portal, where users are invited to provide feedback.
Public Detailed Docs
Planned start:
01.04.2023
Target completion:
12.03.2026
Key milestones:
- Cost benefit analysis tool (May 2023)
- 2023 system refresh, and regulatory outputs for system planning including LV improvement (Oct 2023)
- Integration of probabilistic modelling & reactive power (Sep 2024)
- 2024 system refresh, and regulatory outputs for system planning including updated profiles and adjustments for flexibility services and battery storage (Oct 2024)
Status:
On Track
| Date of change | Category | Description |
|---|---|---|
| 28.06.2024 | Update |
Integration of probabilistic modelling & reactive power milestone’s due date changed from March 2024 to September 2024 due to prioritisation of other new functionality for the 2024 outputs (heat pump, I&C customer and data centre profile updates, adjustments for flexibility services dispatch and to identify battery contribution to peak demand). Milestone name had 2024 and it got corrected to 2023 system refresh, and regulatory outputs for system planning including LV improvement. New milestone added, 2024 system refresh, and regulatory outputs for system planning including updated profiles and adjustments for flexibility services and battery storage. |
| 24.12.2023 | Update |
The probabilistic modelling milestone target date was changed from December 2023 to March 2024 due to delays. We also added a summary of stakeholder engagement and a link to more information. |
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