smart-networks

PILLAR: SMART NETWORKS

Long-Term Forecasting Platform (Strategic Forecasting System)

Strategic-Forecasting-System-e1687188549725

What we will do and why

Development of enhanced medium to long term forecasting capabilities to produce granular and accurate models of future demand and generation, which will be shared in an open and transparent manner with stakeholders.

Key deliverables

  • Enhancement of existing Strategic Forecasting System capabilities.
  • Business As usual capability.
  • Establishing framework for Support and maintenance.

Target outcomes

  • Broader, more effective stakeholder engagement.
  • Enhanced visualisation of load growth forecasting.
  • Increased stakeholder access to load related forecast data.

Measures of success

  • Increase in predictive data accuracy & granularity.
  • Extent of publication of load forecast data and information.
  • Customer and stakeholder satisfaction.

Stakeholder Engagement

We gather information from local authorities to inform the scenarios in our long term forecasts, for instance this year we have developed functionality in our forecasting systems to ingest Local Authority’s Local Area Energy Plans. We then share updated outputs regularly on the Open Data Portal, where users are invited to provide feedback.

Planned start:

01.04.2023

Target completion:

12.03.2026

Key milestones:

  • Cost benefit analysis tool (May 2023)
  • 2024 system refresh, and regulatory outputs for system planning including LV improvement (Oct 2023)
  • Integration of probabilistic modelling & reactive power (Mar 2024) - Delayed

Status:

On Track

Date of change Category Description
24.12.2023 Update

The probabilistic modelling milestone target date was changed from December 2023 to March 2024 due to delays. We also added a summary of stakeholder engagement and a link to more information.